Possible scenario
Security Escalation Risk
20% Chance
The oil-sector contraction becomes part of a broader energy-security confrontation involving shipping, insurance and possible Western restrictions. This is less likely than a managed rift, but the Hormuz precedent makes a sharper crude-market reaction plausible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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