Possible scenario
Prolonged Managed Rift
30% Chance
The diplomatic freeze persists but does not turn into an outright embargo or military escalation. Saudi production, services access and export logistics remain impaired, keeping crude risk premia elevated and weighing on Saudi-linked contractors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.