Possible scenario
Diplomatic Repair Path
35% Chance
Riyadh and Washington move to contain the damage from the Western-allies rift because both sides need stable oil flows after the Hormuz dispute and Iran-war fallout. The most likely version is a limited energy-security understanding that lets Saudi output recover gradually without a full political reset.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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