Possible scenario
Boycott Contained
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the withdrawals remain a symbolic diplomatic and reputational signal rather than a rupture with Saudi Arabia. ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and BP send regional executives or technical staff while Saudi officials keep the congress agenda intact.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Tickers
- XOM+0.6%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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