Possible scenario
Labor Displacement Scare
20% Chance
The market emphasizes Cook's reference to economic risk rather than just inflation risk. New evidence of AI-driven white-collar layoffs would increase concern that 2027 brings weaker income growth, tighter credit, and a more difficult Fed tradeoff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Finance -0.8%
- Business Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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