Possible scenario
Saudi Supply Bridge
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Aramco use spare export capacity, inventory drawdowns, and rerouted logistics to keep Asian refiners supplied despite the Hormuz crisis. This is the most likely path because Riyadh has strong incentives to stabilize customers in China, India, Japan, and South Korea while preserving market share.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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