Possible scenario
Managed Hormuz Disruption
30% Chance
Hormuz remains dangerous, but shipping does not stop. The US Fifth Fleet, GCC states, and commercial insurers create a partial escort-and-routing system that keeps enough barrels moving to avoid a full Asian supply break.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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