Possible scenario
Narrow Hormuz Compromise
18% Chance
The parties avoid the politically explosive word 'toll' while creating a narrower arrangement for escorts, notification, and maritime safety around Hormuz. This reduces immediate confrontation but leaves room for small administrative charges or voluntary service fees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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