Possible scenario
Policy Reassurance Builds
25% Chance
Authorities respond to the IMF's warning by emphasizing liquidity tools, auction flexibility, and vigilance over financial stability. The message lowers the odds that the yield surge becomes self-reinforcing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.4%
- Utilities +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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