Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Stabilization
40% Chance
Markets largely treat the IMF warning as confirmation of risks already priced after the recent Treasury selloff. Demand at major sovereign auctions remains adequate, and central banks avoid fresh hawkish surprises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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