Possible scenario
Credit Stress Broadens
25% Chance
The IMF's warning reinforces investor concern that high real yields will pressure banks, leveraged borrowers, housing, and private credit. Funding conditions tighten further even without a single systemic failure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.6%
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.