Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
18% Chance
A joint offensive or Iranian anticipation of one expands beyond nuclear sites into a broader confrontation involving Gulf shipping, U.S. bases, Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iraqi militias. This is less likely than coercion or limited strikes, but the accumulated timeline of failed talks and prior attacks raises the tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.