Possible scenario
Limited Follow-On Strikes
30% Chance
The United States and Israel conduct a narrow follow-on operation against suspected storage sites, tunnels, air defenses, or command nodes tied to Iran's nuclear program. This is plausible because prior strikes did not resolve the IAEA's concern that enriched uranium remained at attacked sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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