Possible scenario
Coercive Military Buildup
40% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem use the threat of a joint offensive to force Tehran back toward concessions on enriched uranium and inspections. The most likely near-term outcome is visible force posture, intelligence sharing, and public deadlines rather than an immediate second strike after the September 24 attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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