Limited Kinetic Escalation

The risk of a limited clash remains high because prior U.S. tanker strikes, Iran’s Hormuz closure, and Khamenei’s rhetoric all create escalation pathways. Both sides may still try to keep the conflict geographically bounded, but even limited strikes would move energy and risk markets sharply.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.