Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Blockade Persists
30% Chance
Iran keeps pressure on shipping while avoiding a direct large-scale clash with U.S. forces. This is consistent with the headline’s coercive rhetoric: Tehran claims the Gulf is being cleared of enemies but uses ambiguity to maintain leverage over oil flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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