Face-Saving De-Escalation

Khamenei’s language about an enemy retreat creates room for Iran to present reduced U.S. naval pressure as a victory while quietly easing the Hormuz blockade. Oman, Qatar, and China have strong incentives to broker a limited maritime pause that restores energy flows without requiring either side to concede publicly.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.