Possible scenario
Limited East Africa Spread
25% Chance
Undetected travel before diagnosis produces a small number of suspected or confirmed cases near Kenya's borders. Governments avoid full border closures but introduce temperature screening, passenger manifests and isolation rules for high-risk travelers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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