Possible scenario
Retrial Ends Conviction
45% Chance
The most likely path is that prosecutors press forward after the mistrial and a second jury accepts that the Commonwealth proved criminal responsibility beyond a reasonable doubt. The defense’s shift from lack of criminal responsibility to a no-evidence argument may narrow the case, but it also risks appearing inconsistent after the prior insanity-defense posture.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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