Possible scenario
Weaker Track Outcome
25% Chance
Dry air, land interaction, or a track shift reduces the storm’s intensity before landfall. Energy shutdowns are reversed quickly and markets unwind some of the storm-risk premium built into crude and Gulf-exposed equities.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Utilities +0.3%
Tickers
- TALO+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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