January Approval

The most likely outcome is that the CFTC uses the extended review period to finalize market-surveillance, settlement, and anti-manipulation questions, then permits CME to list the contract shortly after Jan 8. The delay looks procedural rather than a signal of outright opposition, especially given growing demand for hedging AI compute costs.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.