Possible scenario
Cuts Mostly Stand
38% Chance
The Trump administration defends the removals as fraud prevention and keeps most terminations in force through the next open-enrollment cycle. CMS and HHS argue that duplicate, ineligible, or broker-driven enrollments inflated subsidy spending, while states and insurers adjust to a smaller exchange pool.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
Tickers
- OSCR-2.6%
- CNC-1.5%
- HCA-1.0%
- MOH-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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