Possible scenario
Talks Stay Ring-Fenced
40% Chance
The most likely path is that USTR Jamieson Greer keeps AI chips outside the trade negotiating channel, leaving Commerce, BIS and the White House to handle semiconductor export controls separately. This lets Washington pursue tariff and purchase arrangements with Beijing without reopening the politically sensitive Nvidia H20/H200 issue.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.1%
- AMD-0.8%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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