Separate Chip Deal

A less likely but market-relevant outcome is that the White House preserves a separate AI-chip licensing framework even as USTR excludes the topic from formal China trade talks. This would resemble the earlier Trump decision allowing some H200 sales to China with a U.S. revenue share or strict licensing conditions.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.