Possible scenario
Chip Controls Tighten
25% Chance
A second plausible path is that excluding chips from trade talks foreshadows a tougher national-security review by the Commerce Department and BIS. Washington could decide that earlier H20/H200 carve-outs are too permissive given Chinese data-center demand and military-civil fusion concerns.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.6%
- AMD-2.5%
- AVGO-0.7%
- SMCI-0.5%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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