Possible scenario
Policy Pushback Emerges
18% Chance
Officials may try to calm disorderly currency expectations without changing formal policy. A softer tone from Fed officials or firmer language from the ECB could interrupt the dollar rally and stabilize the euro.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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