Possible scenario
Dollar Rally Extends
42% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a continuation of the current dollar trend as markets price a wider Fed-ECB policy gap. Strong U.S. data and recent Fed projections keep Treasury yields firm while weak euro-area growth limits support for the euro.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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