Possible scenario
International Accountability
18% Chance
The civilian death toll forces the UN, African Union, and Western governments to demand an investigation. The likely result is diplomatic censure and pressure on Egypt, Sudan’s army, and RSF-linked gold networks rather than immediate sweeping sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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