Possible scenario
Managed University Compliance
45% Chance
UK universities respond to MI5 and NCSC warnings by pausing or terminating the highest-risk research links while preserving lower-risk student and academic exchanges. This is the most likely path because universities have strong incentives to comply without provoking a full rupture in UK-China academic relations.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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