Possible scenario
Chinese Retaliation
17% Chance
China responds diplomatically and may restrict selected UK academic or research programs, especially if London publicly names a state security-linked entity. The most likely retaliation remains targeted rather than economy-wide, but it would add pressure to UK-China research and technology ties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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