Possible scenario
Talks Without Breakthrough
30% Chance
Both sides keep negotiations alive but avoid politically costly concessions. Germany supports engagement, while France and parts of the European Commission maintain pressure on subsidies, market access and industrial overcapacity.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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