Possible scenario
Managed Trade Thaw
38% Chance
Beijing and Brussels use Germany's more pragmatic stance to stabilize talks without reversing the EU's de-risking strategy. The most likely outcome is a managed compromise on electric vehicles, investment screening and sectoral tariffs rather than a full reset.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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