Possible scenario
Sanctions Tighten Instead
18% Chance
Rather than licensing part of the shadow fleet, Washington pivots toward additional enforcement after intelligence agencies link more vessels to Iranian military financing. This cuts usable capacity further and supports tanker rates, while raising the risk premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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