Possible scenario
Plan Stalls Politically
28% Chance
The proposal runs into legal and political resistance because allies fear weakening the sanctions architecture built after the Russian oil price cap. Markets treat the plan as unlikely to add immediate tonnage, keeping tanker rates and oil-risk premia elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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