Possible scenario
Stalemate With Deterrence
30% Chance
Washington does not immediately change its force posture, but the envoy's remarks reduce expectations of a new strike campaign. Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Russia, and China keep talking while commercial vessels largely continue using longer Cape of Good Hope routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.