Possible scenario
Administration Holds Line
25% Chance
The Trump administration treats Carr's rejection as validation and continues the advertising campaign. DHS and White House lawyers argue the ads are lawful public messaging tied to border security and anti-communism themes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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