Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
25% Chance
Iran may use the mediator-only format to signal that it will not enter direct negotiations without prior sanctions assurances. The U.S. and European governments would likely keep channels open but warn that time is limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.