Possible scenario
Indirect Talks Continue
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Iran, Qatar, Oman, and European intermediaries keep the process alive without a direct U.S.-Iran meeting. Tehran can preserve domestic political cover while Washington tests whether mediators can narrow gaps on enrichment, sanctions, and verification.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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