Possible scenario
Energy Truce Expands
25% Chance
The export surge becomes part of a wider U.S.-Canada energy bargain covering tariff exemptions, refinery supply, and emergency fuel coordination. This path is plausible because Trump backed away from the diesel export ban after allied reserve action, suggesting room for transactional compromise.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- IMO+1.2%
- SU+0.8%
- +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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