Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation
28% Chance
The Houthis respond to the UK deployment by testing Saudi defenses with larger drone and missile salvos. The risk is credible because the prior week already included strikes on Riyadh airport, air bases, Aramco and airports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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