Possible scenario
Political Legal Escalation
20% Chance
The scandal becomes a broader governance issue for Ankara, with prosecutors expanding beyond traders and portfolio managers. The Capital Markets Board faces pressure to show accountability after the $18.3 billion fund crisis and the arrest of Tera chair Emre Tezmen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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