Possible scenario
Orderly Enforcement Track
45% Chance
Turkey's Capital Markets Board and the vice-president-led liquidation board keep the response focused on the 26 targeted stocks and the $18.3 billion fund unwind. Arrests and asset freezes continue, but regulators avoid a broader shutdown of Borsa Istanbul trading.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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