Possible scenario
Brokerage Contagion Spreads
25% Chance
The investigation broadens from fund liquidation to brokerage financing, custody records, and margin accounts. This would raise concerns about settlement risk and force smaller securities firms to preserve liquidity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.