Possible scenario
Yield Relief Emerges
25% Chance
A softer labor-market or inflation report could pull Treasury yields down from recent highs and ease pressure on mortgage rates. This would likely produce a short risk-on move in homebuilders, mortgage lenders, and rate-sensitive equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Fed policy rate Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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