Possible scenario
Housing Freeze Deepens
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that 30-year mortgage rates remain near current levels as the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 5%. Existing-home listings rise slowly, transaction volumes weaken, and builders rely more heavily on incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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