Possible scenario
Pentagon Owns Limits
20% Chance
The Pentagon may conclude that the curbs were imposed under operational security, spectrum management, or rules limiting how US-funded systems support offensive drone activity. That would support the official denial that Trump personally ordered the limits while leaving Ukraine frustrated.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- IRDM+0.3%
- VSAT-0.1%
- SPCX+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.