Possible scenario
Wider Regional Escalation
24% Chance
The confrontation broadens beyond isolated tanker burnings and drone shootdowns into a regional military or maritime crisis. This path is less likely than a limited U.S. response, but the repeated tanker strikes and 54th MQ-9 loss show deterrence is already badly degraded.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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