Possible scenario
Limited US Retaliation
38% Chance
Washington conducts a bounded military response against IRGC coastal sensors, drone units, or fast-boat infrastructure while expanding escorts for tankers in and near Hormuz. This is the most likely path because the U.S. has strong incentives to restore deterrence without triggering a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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