Possible scenario
Brokered De-escalation
26% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly Switzerland push both sides toward a short maritime stand-down to prevent an oil shock. Tehran may accept a pause if it can claim deterrence while Washington may accept one to protect shipping and avoid a pre-election or late-cycle energy spike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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