Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Continues
25% Chance
Russia avoids a conventional attack but sustains sabotage, cyber operations, GPS jamming, and drone harassment against Poland, the Baltics, and logistics routes supporting Ukraine. NATO responds through intelligence sharing, air-defense deployments, and police action rather than Article 5.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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